Hereâ??s more bad news for this already beleaguered bull market: The so-called Presidential Election Year Cycle has turned negative.
Not until the July-September quarter of next year will this cycle once again forecast above-average stock market returns.
This, no doubt, will come as a surprise to casual followers of the Presidential Election Year Cycle, since its premise is that politicians, regardless of party affiliation, go to great lengths to make sure the economy is booming on Election Day. But the historical record tells a different story: The 12 months before a presidential election tend to be disappointing ones for the stock market.
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