How To Predict Recession In Real Time

Recognizing when a recession starts in real time is, for all practical purposes, impossible. The one exception to that rule is if you're willing to endure a high number of false signals in your model. In that case, you'll see lots of new recessions starting, but only a handful will be the genuine article. But if reliability with a low error rate is required — as it should be – the usual routine won't suffice.