Beware Of Extremist Bond Calls

I've spent way too much of my career cautioning investors about extremist positions. No, there wasn't a bond bubble in 2010. No, the stock market wasn't a bubble back in 2013. No, the USA wasn't going bankrupt in 2012. No, QE wasn't going to cause hyperinflation. You get the point. I try to be objective and pragmatic and a big part of that involves empirically sound and operationally consistent analysis so we can make relatively high probabilistic conclusions about the world. Extremist views about the markets tend to be more emotionally and politically motivated which makes them far less empirically sound and lower probability outcomes.