There Are No Shortcuts For Predicting Recession

The St. Louis Fed last week pondered the question: “Is the U.S. Due for a Recession?” In a blog post the bank advised that after a long expansion “there is a concern that, even though the economy looks good right now, the next recession may be lurking just around the corner.” On the short list for possible smoking guns, the post continued, is the low unemployment rate, which is currently at 4.1%, which is near a two-decade low.