Business Cycle Risk Report: Recession Risk Is Nil

Fears of a global trade war are rattling stock markets around the world after President Trump imposed tariffs on China on Thursday. China's commerce ministry responded immediately with tariffs on US imports. If trade restrictions escalate, there will be a price to pay in economic growth and so this evolving news story deserves close attention for monitoring macro risk. For the moment, however, using data published to date, US recession risk remains virtually nil.