In U.S./China Trade Scrap, No One Gets the Throne

Whatever happens in the U.S.-China trade war, whatever deal is forged or escalation ensues: uncertainty is the only certain outcome. Market participants in both countries and beyond will rightly think twice before doing business or investing in the other country's economy. From simple import/export deals to moving production facilities to the entire universe of digital trade: The consequences are going to be felt everywhere. The hallmark of this uncertainty is how freely and abundantly tariffs have been employed as a negotiation tactic on both sides. With tariffs now deemed an appropriate tool for negotiation, the postwar reluctance to impose them as part of a trade dispute seems to be defenestrated. That's a genie that will be hard to get back into the bottle. Companies and investors will be rationally wary.