Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Presidential election have been rising on prediction markets. That’s not surprising. Although no single event stands out, most commentators see October’s news flow as being mildly net positive for the former president.
Here's where we stand currently: Expert forecaster Nate Silver has increased his estimated probability of a Trump victory by 10 percentage points, from 43% to 53%. The PredictIt prediction market has made a slightly larger adjustment, from $0.48 to $0.59 (or a 59% chance of a Trump victory), while Polymarket is up a bit more, from $0.50 to $0.64.
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