Congress Should Be Skeptical About CBO Projections

The Congressional Budget Office has released its annual report on the accuracy of its budget projections for fiscal 2025. It is a useful yearly reminder to policymakers that CBO forecasts are almost always wrong.

For fiscal 2025, CBO underestimated total federal revenue by $331 billion, a 6% miss, and   underestimated corporate tax receipts by 9%. The previous year, CBO underestimated the budget deficit by $306 billion, and underestimated corporate tax receipts by 10%. In fiscal 2022, they underestimated corporate tax receipts by 25%.