Jeff Snider is a RealClearMarkets contributor and a co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast.
Dec 1, 2023
They're Hiding the Silent Depression That Did Happen
Fifteen years ago this month, amidst the unholy darkness some daylight had emerged; at least according to the official version. The fact it had shown through with Chinese...
Nov 17, 2023
Nothing Has Materially Changed Since August 2007
Wall Street was absolutely abuzz. The day before, it all seemed to be going just fine. Then, bam, a hammer blow to the face. At least that was how it was described by the financial...
Nov 3, 2023
The Fed Is Ready To Start Digging Out Of the Avalanche
Interest rate swap spreads have gone ballistic this month, a sign that things are not well across the eurodollar’s world. And that’s putting it mildly. The 10-year spread...
Oct 20, 2023
The Chain Linking Rome and Mexico City To You and Me
What does the credibility of the Italian government have to do with the fortunes of Mexico’s peso? Those are two things most people would never connect yet they aren’t...
Oct 6, 2023
The Cure For High Prices That Weren't Actually Inflation
Could it really have been that fast? Just last week I was writing here in this space that Saudi Arabia was likely to regret its big gamble. The oil-producing giant had bet...
Sep 29, 2023
The Dollar Is Back To Rampaging Against Every Major Currency
You know what they say about when you have “friends” like these. Trading across the oil market this week is one for the books, if the familiar set of them. The WTI curve...
Sep 22, 2023
Dots: Stabs In the Dark Without Any Substance
Revenge of the dots. Sort of. The Federal Reserve hit the pause button for the second time this year this week, yet all anyone wanted to talk about was next year. Maybe there will be...
Sep 8, 2023
The Problem Isn't the Beige Book, It's Those Compiling It
Back in 1983, Congressman Walter E. Fauntroy wasn’t too happy with the state of the economy. Who could have blamed him? In the final stage of seventeen terrible years of...
Sep 1, 2023
'Soft Landings' Are Another Made Up Economic Notion
Richard Nixon really did not like even the idea of recession. In one sense, you can’t fault the guy since he was constantly blamed for them. This was a relatively new idea,...
Aug 11, 2023
The Real Challenge Is Broad Understanding of the STL Fed Model
He was once called the Harry Truman of the Federal Reserve. It was, by all accounts, a well-deserved reputation. During his tenure atop the St. Louis branch during some of the most...
Aug 4, 2023
The Bigger Problem Re Fitch Is Economics Being Swapped for economics
There was a time when it was feared by everyone. The most powerful people in the world were forced to concede to its every whim, the tiniest of moves. Any hint of dismay would set...
Jul 31, 2023
China's Economic Struggles Are Representative of Global Struggles
Communist regimes will always feature a fair amount of palace intrigue, a feature not a bug. To be fair, democratic societies aren’t free from the same, it is just done...
Jul 21, 2023
If Powell Wants Higher Rates, He Should Ask Why He's Not Getting Them
On November 22, 1798, the US Navy suffered its first true defeat when the USS Retaliation yielded its colors without firing a single cannon. What made the event truly...
Jul 7, 2023
Even If Jerome Powell Is Successful, We Still Lose
In some ways it has been like two heavyweight sluggers battling it out over the course of an extended bout, exchanging one haymaker after another. With each monstrous blow, the...
Jun 16, 2023
Policymakers Will Need a Miracle, Not a Pause
There is a growing puzzle among central bankers, one that is both familiar and unique at the same time. When surveying the major employment figures, there doesn’t seem to be...
Jun 9, 2023
Recession In China First, Followed by the World
It wasn’t just a complete narrative fail, the fiasco uncovers much deeper and more intractable problems resurfacing at a most inopportune time. There are lessons to be heeded...
Jun 2, 2023
The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon
This may be the best, most perfect example of why the eurodollar standard isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Since hardly anyone knows the world runs on that rather...
May 26, 2023
There's a Real Ceiling on Money and Finance Unrelated to Government
Before March 10, 2023, these kinds of moves had been exceptionally rare. In eurodollar futures and now SOFR futures (term), daily swings of greater than 20 bps were reserved for the...
May 19, 2023
Markets Continuously Project Lower Rates...Much Lower
Several serious questions remain yet to be answered in the aftermath of recent bank failures. While politicians wrestle over who might be to blame, they’ll never come up with a...
May 5, 2023
The Deflation Is Here, and It Wasn't the Rate Hikes
Just a few months ago, Mohamed El-Erian was decrying a “paradox of financial conditions” as he called them. Writing in the Financial Times, El-Erian was speaking for...
Apr 28, 2023
Safety and Liquidity Will Soon Be Prized Even More
It has not been a great week for central bankers, which is already saying something. By standards of recent developments, so long as a seven-day period goes by without major banking...
Apr 21, 2023
The Fed Goes Back to Fighting Non-Existent Inflation
In the months before the debt ceiling was reached and possibly breached in 2011, global markets just could not get enough of Treasury’s bills. Not the ones the Department might...
Apr 14, 2023
March FOMC Minutes Reinforce How Bad They Are at Money
The other side of the supply shock was always going to be rough. Our only question was just how bad it might get. On that there were two variables, neither of those inflation. From...
Mar 31, 2023
The Question No One Will Ask Jerome Powell: "What Would You Say You Do Here?"
It’s such an amazing scene from a true cult classic that it hasn’t just become an internet meme, the very image of the Bobs grilling sweaty, fear-ridden Tom Smykowski...
Mar 17, 2023
Markets Have Been Warning Us About SVB for Months
Can’t say we weren’t warned. Money and bond curves have been screaming for months trouble was lurking. A decent bout of it had erupted last fall, though hardly anyone saw...
Mar 10, 2023
Prices Point In Unison To a Dark Global Experience
Have you ever noticed that whenever the US dollar’s exchange value goes up, nothing good comes from it? The simplest, most obvious correlation to make yet it has taken a decade...
Mar 3, 2023
The Irrationality That Forms the Beliefs of Janet Yellen
I’m inclined to cut Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen a tiny little slack here, pun intended. Rather miffed by all this talk of recession, appearing on ABC’s Good...
Feb 24, 2023
The Very Serious Possibility Recession Has Already Happened
It was a sudden and epic flood of oil the likes of which the country hadn’t seen before. According to the government’s numbers, the Energy Information Administration,...
Feb 17, 2023
Do QEs Fix Any Economy? The Question Is Rhetorical
They come in with a tremendous bang, then go out with barely a whimper, and leave us in the very same jam that kicked off the cycle. Having since completely squandered rather than...
Feb 10, 2023
In This 'Silent Depression,' Let's Destroy the Dollar All Over Again
If you’ve been on the website nerdwallet.com, there truly is a lot of good and interesting stuff there. From helping you compare credit card offers to researching banks...
Feb 3, 2023
Central Bankers Fail Upward, But We Suffer Their Failings
Here it begins, an unofficial start to what will shortly be the mass official exodus from inflation-fighting first transiting through bewilderment before eventually settling in their...
Jan 27, 2023
Dollar Providers Biding Time, Betting On Collapse
Among the earliest participants in the eurodollar system were Canadians. Though these dollars were floating around Europe, primarily, Canadian banks stood ready to borrow in bulk as...
Jan 20, 2023
Much Like Twenty Novembers Ago, We're At the Edge of a Cliff
When staring directly at the edge of a cliff, you quite naturally begin to explore all the ways in which you might avoid going over it. The closer you get, obviously the more urgent...
Jan 13, 2023
No Need To Wait For a Crisis To Confirm What We Already Know
It seems like an unnecessarily inefficient method, maybe even a total waste (pun intended) of time trying to discern what an animal eats solely by observing what comes out...
Jan 6, 2023
We've Been On a Digital Money Standard For at Least Half a Century
Just as the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, VISA is not actually a credit card company. What is it about money and payments which leads to so many of these things...
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