Jeffrey Snider is the Head of Global Research at
Nov 19, 2021
The Money's Not There For Any Kind of Inflation
Sidelined by years of over-promising and not delivering, the Federal Reserve may seem to be sitting this one out. Trying to stay relevant with tapering QE, the latter is no longer on...
Nov 12, 2021
We Can't Depend On the Ms, Which Only Produce Bad Vs
If you had the ability to compute the long-run stable price level from nothing more than the long run trend of money velocity and a good idea of what potential GDP should be, tied...
Nov 5, 2021
You Can Be Sure You Won't Find Any Answers In 'Taper'
I’ll bet most people thought Wednesday’s taper announcement from the Federal Reserve was its second. Everyone likely remembers what everyone assumed had been the first;...
Oct 29, 2021
The Federal Reserve's Policy Deficit Has Always Been About Money
It must’ve seemed unimaginable at the time, another dreadful contribution to the early lives of an entire generation who couldn’t seem to find peace and stability. Having...
Oct 22, 2021
The Asymmetry of Ineffective and Worthless QE
Compared to the utterly turbulent world of today, 1990 wouldn’t really rate all that high on any reasonable scale of years to remember. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq would invade...
Oct 15, 2021
The Power of Money Lurks In the Shadows
How could an inflationary environment persist, actually flourish, during a time when macroeconomic slack was at an extreme? Conventional economic theory uniformly said that when so...
Oct 8, 2021
The U.S. Economy Remains As Frozen As Ever
It would be remembered as Snowmageddon. On February 5 and 6, 2010, the DC beltway area was blanketed with almost 18 inches of the freezing white stuff, the fourth-worst blizzard to...
Oct 1, 2021
'Easing' Monetary Policy Is Missing a Key Component
Financial repression, he admitted, yes, this was neither a mistake nor an unlucky coincidence. It had always been an intentional provocation, the occurrence of ridiculously low...
Sep 24, 2021
Central Bankers Refuse to Learn QE's Obvious Lessons
As the year drew toward its close, policymakers were increasingly confident that their magic elixir of various “accommodative” policies had cured enough ailments to begin...
Sep 17, 2021
They're Ignoring That There's Too Little Money Now
John Maynard Keynes was no fan of gold. Neither he nor any human being could eat it, and the amount of effort and labor expended at times to dig the metal up out of the ground seemed...
Sep 10, 2021
Sustained Inflation Would Confirm Economic Recovery
Long before the city would become infamous for reasons of viral civilizational hazard, Wuhan had been unappreciated previously as the near epicenter of another symptom of...
Sep 3, 2021
The Eurodollar Giveth, and the Eurodollar Take Away
Fred Schultz was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve during one of those watershed periods that come up consistently throughout history. No Economist, he was a Korean Army vet...
Aug 27, 2021
It's What Won't Be Said at Jackson Hole That Will Speak the Loudest
At the end of every August, key central bankers from the US and around the world gather in Jackson Hole. This year, like last year, they’ll do so “virtually.”...
Aug 20, 2021
The Next Taper Is a Big Deal for Very Different Reasons
It was a very tense period, one of those moments in time when you just knew there would be no going back from it. We’ve been able to deconstruct several of these over the...
Aug 13, 2021
There Is So Much, Too Much, Just Enough the Same
Corporate CEO’s have earned their places in most, certainly many cases. If there is one thing we should expect from them, it is to know the business of the businesses they run....
Aug 6, 2021
The Money Is 'Double Missing' Thanks to Economists
It was another one of those historical developments that meant far more than it otherwise had seemed. Not necessarily hidden agendas, more along the lines of the changing times; a...
Jul 30, 2021
The Inverse of 'Fedspeak' Is On Display In 2021
If there is an inverse to fedspeak, Alan Greenspan’s infamous tendency to shroud monetary policy in the cloak of intentional obfuscation, it would have to be what’s...
Jul 23, 2021
No Matter What They Say, the Future Isn't Inflationary
As hard as it may be to unpack the tangled mess that is the global monetary system, something I wrote many years ago about an important early stage of evolution away from gold...
Jul 16, 2021
Why Don't Bonds Reflect CPI Alarm About Inflation?
Why doesn’t the market care about these inflation reports? First, by writing “market” I mean actual markets in bonds. Despite now three huge CPI’s in a row in...
Jul 9, 2021
To This Day, the World Still Thinks It Was About QE
It was like some huge thunderclap, an obvious disturbance which, by the end, contributed so much to how history unfolded. But like some unsolved cold case financial...
Jul 2, 2021
The China of Today Seeks Nothing But Its Own Terms
An oxymoron, to be sure, there have been numerous failures of “government intelligence” just in the 21st century. Iraq WMD may or may not have been intentionally...
Jun 18, 2021
The Dots Are On the Move, But So Are the Dot Spoilers
So many dots, so little time. Actually, only a few dots, quite a ton of unearned noise. If we’re talking about dots again then that could only mean doing the same thing and...
Jun 11, 2021
Because Central Bankers Have No Clue What Else To Do
What’s the harm? Even if it doesn’t work well or much at all, this QE stuff can’t hurt. Sure, it’s a lot of noise but that’s really the point;...
Jun 4, 2021
Growing Indications There's More Trouble Ahead
We have seen the enemy, and he is us. Oliver Hazard Perry, of course, had first used the line “we have met the enemy, and he is ours” during the War of 1812 after a...
May 28, 2021
The Fed Is the Perpetual Janitor, Cleaning Up After Itself
There’s just the one Treasury market, isn’t there? The same has been assumed of the money market, too. Singular blocks which operate something like a Medieval...
May 21, 2021
We'll Continue Hearing About a Global Recovery That Isn't Real
We live in a non-linear world, and that means, among other things, rate of change governs everything whether we consciously perceive this or not. Sometimes tampering with the slope...
May 14, 2021
A Half-Baked Attempt To Pull Banking Back In Before It's Too Late
It comes from a central bank, yet is it money? This has taken too many years, but over the last several, interest in, and debate over, what bank reserves are and maybe ought to be...
May 7, 2021
Monetary Wrongness Has Authored a Crypto Response
What if, in order to buy a house, you had to find upwards of fifty different coins weighing 9 kilograms in silver? In lieu of those, a gold coin would suffice but extremely hard to...
Apr 30, 2021
Higher Prices Must Be Engineered to Restrain Dictators
Even before he was elected President, it was said that Franklin Roosevelt was given a clear choice by one of his closest advisors. George F. Warren was an economist who, like Irving...
Apr 23, 2021
A Profound Statement In the Ongoing Saga of Shadow Money
Could low repo haircuts on US Treasury collateral actually be a source of potential danger? That it might be is itself a profound statement in the ongoing saga of shadow money and...
Apr 16, 2021
History Isn't On Your Side If You're Looking for Inflation
Not quite halfway into his one term occupying the White House, President Carter was clearly fed up. Rising into that office ostensibly to accomplish what his hapless predecessor...
Apr 9, 2021
Slight, But Only Slight, Movement In the Understanding of Rates
Always, always the interest rate fallacy. Like last week my examination of Economics tardily discovering interesting and key facts on collateral in the world’s primary monetary...
Mar 26, 2021
Central Banks Don't Do Quantities of Money Because They Can't
Though it wasn’t the first time, and not among the majors, still New Zealand’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) earlier this week found itself unable to complete a full QE operation....
Mar 19, 2021
One Year Later, the Fed Is 12 Million Jobs Short
It was a Sunday, but no ordinary end to that particular weekend. There was much to be done before the workweek could begin the following morning. At 5 pm in the Eastern time zone of...
Mar 12, 2021
Seeing Interest Rates Counter To What They Actually Are
From the outside, pinned to the glass window pane settled in place long ago by conventional Economics, looking inward at these mechanics created only confusion and unsettling angst....
Mar 5, 2021
There's Precedent for Yellen Demanding a Central Bank Rescue
Would Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen call Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell into her decorated, historic office to demand the central bank rescue the Treasury market? If she did,...
Feb 26, 2021
Why Price Alone Does Not Render An Asset Class 'Safe'
What makes “safe” assets perceived in that way isn’t really their price. Most often, the idea relates to the fact that there is a dependable market for its class...
Feb 19, 2021
Beware, There's Another SLF 'Cliff' Coming At the End of Q1
You might not know it, but there’s another SLF “cliff” upcoming at the end of this year’s first quarter. This Supplementary Leverage Ratio seeks to impose...
Feb 12, 2021
There's Much More Going On Than You've Been Led to Believe
Computing power being what it was in the eighties, still the financial system was at the leading edge of technological prowess. Big money involved, huge money, had meant...
Feb 5, 2021
T-Bills Sit at the Base of the Global Money Pyramid
The roaring dot-com era of the late nineties created all kinds of headaches for the Federal Reserve. While its leader, the “maestro” Alan Greenspan, was referring...
Jan 29, 2021
We Keep Hearing How There Are 'Too Many Treasuries'
Busted auction. Hard to imagine today, if for very different reasons, in March 1920 the Treasury Department found itself without enough bids for its overgrown needs. Intending to...
Jan 22, 2021
They Can't See the Dire Economic Situation For What It Really Is
Moved by the visible desolation outside his shabby little doorway which day after day had been practically shoved in his face, Samuel Gompers would go on to become one of the most...
Jan 15, 2021
They Keep Assuring Us Japan Can't Happen Here
He actually meant it to be soothing, a reassuring statement of clear and unequivocal support for a reeling market. This statement, however, was received in the exact opposite way....
Jan 8, 2021
The Mythical Printing Press Belongs Somewhere Outside the Fed
Was it worth saving a single million? There was a time period when such a sum was significant. That time is beyond the memory of anyone alive. In the years since the Great Inflation...
Jan 4, 2021
We're In a Post-Modern Era of Currency-Less Currencies
What does attitude have to do with anything? For a modern Economist or central banker (same thing), it’s everything. Expectations-based monetary policy calls for, and depends...
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