RealClearMarkets Articles

In a recent interview at Semafor's Trust Media Summit in Washington, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr declared: "This isn't Ronald Reagan's FCC, and I think that's a good thing." He was responding to a question regarding some of his headline-grabbing "jawboning" actions against broadcasters' programming decisions.  I beg to differ. I don't think it's a "good thing" for Chairman Carr to proclaim that it's a good thing that the FCC he leads "isn't Ronald Reagan's FCC." After all, it was the Reagan FCC, under the leadership of then-Chairman Mark Fowler, that...

The math is simple, but Argentina keeps getting it wrong. The country is sitting on one of the world's largest shale formations—Vaca Muerta holds 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of gas. Foreign companies are lining up to invest: Eni and Abu Dhabi’s XRG are co-developing a $20 billion LNG project with YPF targeting a mid-2026 Final Investment Decision, and total hydrocarbon investment is projected to hit $11 billion this year alone. (Shell, notably, exited a separate LNG phase in December 2025 citing scope changes—a reminder that investor patience has...

In Washington and on Wall Street, innovation is often associated with the largest corporations and billion-dollar R&D budgets.  But the data tell a different story.  According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, small businesses account for nearly half of private-sector employment and have consistently punched above their weight in innovation. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, small firms filed more than 8,000 new patents — a 12 percent increase year over year — outpacing the overall national patent growth rate. That entrepreneurial edge matters, especially...

The February jobs report will inevitably produce a round of cautionary headlines. The topline figure—nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000—will be cited as evidence that the Trump economy is weakening.  That interpretation misses the larger story.  To understand what is really happening, let’s dig beneath the surface of the report and place the data in context.  First, the February payroll number was distorted by several temporary factors. Unseasonably cold weather disrupted construction, transportation, and other outdoor employment during the survey period....

In Denationalisation of Money: The Argument Refined, Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek argued for the benefits of a realm of competing, rather than monopoly, national currencies. Modern digital alternatives, including gold stablecoins, have a long shot at realizing Hayekian currency competition. While King Dollar remains the world’s leading currency and no obvious, credible competitors are breathing down its neck, policymakers shouldn’t take its dominance for granted. It’s not invincible. The “barbarous relic”—gold—is an interesting...

Ronald Reagan was a terrible president for “American oil.” He had nothing against crude, but Reagan did favor reversing the weak dollar policies embraced by Presidents Nixon and Carter in the 1970s, and that caused “oil shocks” that were really dollar shocks. The U.S. was far more “energy independent” during the 1970s under Presidents Nixon and Carter, and that was the economic problem. Essential as oil is to the abundant lives we lead, it insults economics to believe we must extract it here. There’s no need. The U.S. could be 100% bereft of oil, all...

America stands at an inflection point for infrastructure investment. The systems that move goods, power homes, and connect communities are ageing faster than they are being developed or replaced. At the same time, technological advances are reshaping how we move, communicate, and generate energy, making the cost of inaction higher than ever. It is a challenge faced by developed economies across the globe.   The American Society of Civil Engineers projects a $3.7 trillion infrastructure funding gap through 2033. This is a...

The Wall Street Journal, of all places, recently ran an article by one of its columnists arguing that “low taxes are becoming a problem for the economy.”  The author contends that the rich “scrimp on taxes,” and that populist pressure is building to make them pay more. Apparently, the author has never read any of the years of Wall Street Journal editorials that definitely do not support the notion that low taxes are a problem for the economy.  More seriously, the author must not be aware of the years of economic research and history which show conclusively...

Twenty years ago, experts predicted that people would eventually stop accumulating stuff as the digital age took hold. Why keep a collection of CDs when your music can be stored and sorted neatly on Spotify? What is the point of filing reams of paper documents when you can store everything in the cloud? And photo albums seem like relics when you have Google Photos.   But it didn’t work out as experts predicted. The modern economy hasn’t exactly encouraged the decluttering of our lives. E-commerce has made buying easier, expanded resale markets, and turned niche interests...

The classical liberal philosophy of limited government, free markets, and respect for the individual’s natural rights to life, liberty, and property originated in Europe. Unfortunately, the modern liberal idea that government should abridge natural rights for the people’s own good also originated in Europe and continues to displace classical liberalism. As in America, this has led to the sacrifice of much economic liberty in service of a massive welfare-regulatory state. Now, those who once were staunch defenders of personal liberty—particularly free...

Netflix won by “losing” the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). The victory can be found in contemplating what Netflix was going to get in return for its purchase of WBD. It wasn’t an expanded customer base. By various accounts, something on the order of 80 percent of HBO Max (owned by WBD) subscribers already subscribed to Netflix. As for news, opposite all the right-wing ranting about Netflix lusting for CNN to make it the “Obama News Network,” the reality was that Netflix wasn’t bidding for CNN in the first place. To which some will say that...

“The times they are a-changin’… but fear not: for behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy!” Yes, a combination of quotes from Bob Dylan and the angel Gabriel. Both are apropos. Our world is changing quickly, but there is no reason to get your panties in a wad. We are in the midst of an astounding productivity miracle. Sure, the confluence of digital currency, artificial intelligence, and social media is cause for concern. Klaus Schwab and Dr. Evil–type villains might use such technologies for sinister purposes. But, Dear Reader, a tremendous amount of...

Though it was changed to “pursuit of happiness” for our 250-year-old Declaration, John Locke’s original statement about “life, liberty, and property” is the founding sentiment of the American experiment. Indeed, the American dream has always been that normal people can own their own home. Property has always been the most reliable way for building inter-generational wealth.  However, that goal has become increasingly out of reach for the average American. Since the covid lockdowns, housing prices have gone up 40% while interest...

Elon Musk only takes big leaps. It’s a reasonable bet that there’s no laddered, tax-free, municipal bond aspect to his investment portfolio. Musk is an enemy of government waste, not a subsidizer of it. As he recently posted on X, when all is said and done he’ll account for $500 billion in federal taxes paid. Which is just so sad. Think about it. Musk isn’t a high-living type, which means he mostly puts his untaxed wealth to work. Better yet, he takes impossible risks with his wealth not so he has more to spend, but so that he can take even bigger risks. It’s...

Only 18% of Americans believe that affordability has improved since President Trump reclaimed the presidency last January, according to a brand-new poll from YouGov-MarketWatch poll. When pressed further, 41% of survey participants said the Trump administration was to blame.  This poll has reignited a familiar political argument: The price of essentials like food and housing prices is still high, thus the president has failed on his election promise to lower prices. The implication is that prices for things like groceries should have gone down by now, and...

Personal Financial Outlook Drops 4.6% as Overall Index Falls 2.7% Consumer sentiment edged lower in March as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly reading of U.S. consumer confidence, declined to 47.5 from 48.8 in February, a 1.3-point (2.7%) drop. The index has now remained below the neutral 50 mark for seven consecutive months, keeping the nation in what we classify as the pessimism zone. March’s reading is 3.3% below the 302-month historical average of 49.1, underscoring that economic optimism continues to run slightly below its long-term...

Last week’s Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump’s invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to levy tariffs was a serious, but not necessarily deadly, blow to the self-styled “Tariff Man’s” defining economic policy agenda. That means American manufacturers and hirers, who are not exactly enjoying smooth sailing, are not out of the unpredictable waves yet. Still, the ruling was a needed reminder that the United States was formed by a group of people trying to rid themselves of taxes on goods they...

In 2020, the town of Brookline adopted an ordinance banning the purchase of nicotine products for anyone born after the year 2000, touting the move as a way to create a "nicotine-free generation." As is often the case when "nanny-state" policies materialize — similar to previous efforts to tax soft drinks that faced enormous consumer backlash — this ordinance was swiftly adopted by virtue-signaling politicians in other localities seeking to masquerade as public health crusaders. Much like the circumstances that led to America’s "soda tax revolt," the public is once...

As President and CEO of MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association, I am proud to represent America’s largest sector of manufacturing jobs and more than 930,000 Americans who work hard every single day to keep our cars on the road in all 50 states. For the past six years, our member companies have been on the frontlines of implementing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).  As the USMCA approaches its 2026 review, this monumental trade deal will inevitably face scrutiny. Recently I had the privilege to testify before the Senate Committee on Finance and shared a...