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Sep 3, 2025
When I first got in this crazy business nearly 35 years ago, an older advisor took me under his wing and shared with me all that he had learned over his 40+ year career. One of the...
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Aug 26, 2025
All my economists say 'on one hand' then 'but on the other'. Can't someone bring me a one-handed economist? Maybe Harry Truman but on the other hand maybe Charles Frederick Carter or...
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Aug 19, 2025
“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September". "If you look at any model" it suggests that “we should probably be...
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Aug 17, 2025
How speculation became a global pastime
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Aug 12, 2025
Last week President Trump nominated the head of his Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill a vacant seat on the board of the Federal Reserve. Miran will fill the seat...
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Aug 5, 2025
When the June employment figures were released last month, I said there was likely a seasonal adjustment problem with the numbers and that a large part of the government jobs...
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Jul 29, 2025
So if you think your life is complete confusionBecause you never win the gameJust remember that it's a grand illusionAnd deep inside we're all the sameWe're all the same So if you...
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Jul 22, 2025
Jerome Powell's tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has ended. Not literally, of course, because apparently Scott Bessent has, for now, talked President Trump out of firing...
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Jul 15, 2025
Last week President Trump announced, via a letter posted on his social media site, that products from Brazil would face a 50% tariff, starting August 1st, due to their treatment of...
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Jul 8, 2025
The first half of this year saw a lot of old trends turned upside down. Foreign stocks outperformed US stocks, gold had its best first half performance since 2007 and the dollar its...
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Jul 5, 2025
Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
That was the headline in the New York Times as the Senate debated...
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Jul 1, 2025
If, at the beginning of the year, anyone had predicted what actually happened in the first half of 2025, they would have been ridiculed and dismissed as delusional. If you were told...
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Jun 24, 2025
Note: I wrote most of this commentary prior to the US strike on Iran and I decided to go ahead with it anyway. I don't know any more than you do about what is going on in the Middle...
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Jun 20, 2025
Why so many rural hospitals keep closing
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Jun 17, 2025
Oil jumped 7.5% last Friday in the wake of the Israeli attack on Iran but the reaction in most other markets was surprisingly muted. The dollar, which normally catches a bid in these...
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Jun 15, 2025
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
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Jun 15, 2025
A debt shock is coming for both China and the US.
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Jun 10, 2025
In about five weeks, the pause on President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs will expire. So far, the US has come to an agreement, of sorts, with exactly one country - the UK. That...
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Jun 3, 2025
The tariff rollercoaster continues. This week most of President Trump's tariffs were ruled to be outside the scope of the law he used to impose them. I was not surprised in the least...
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May 28, 2025
In commodity markets there's an old saying that low prices cure low prices and high prices cure high prices. High prices lead to over-investment in new capacity which leads to gluts...
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May 13, 2025
“Our freedom of choice in a competitive society rests on the fact that, if one person refuses to satisfy our wishes, we can turn to another. But if we face a monopolist we are at...
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May 6, 2025
From The Burden of Bretton Woods, The Richard Nixon Foundation: ...by the 1960s, the expansion of global production and trade increased the amount of dollars circulated worldwide —...
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Apr 29, 2025
Stocks have rebounded over the last three weeks from the initial shock of the "liberation day" tariffs announced on April 8th. The S&P 500 is now down just 2.5% since the close on...
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Apr 22, 2025
The US economy has been the envy of the world for a long time, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. Our economy has grown faster than just about any...
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Apr 15, 2025
The stock market rallied last week, the S&P 500 up nearly 6%, spurred on by the suspension of some of the tariffs imposed on April 2nd. The "reciprocal" part of the new tariffs was...
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Apr 9, 2025
You can't be serious! You cannot be serious! - John McEnroe, challenging a fault call at Wimbledon, 1981 That's what went through my head when President Trump unveiled his...
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Apr 1, 2025
Is it finally time for international stocks to shine? That question has been asked and answered negatively for 10 of the last 12 years if you compare the S&P 500 to the EAFE...
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Mar 25, 2025
Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and...
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Mar 18, 2025
There wasn't a lot of economic news last week but it was largely as expected and seemed pretty good. Job openings rose, there was no rise in jobless claims even after the large...
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Mar 11, 2025
Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating...
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Mar 4, 2025
The meeting between President Trump and Volodymyr Zelenski last Friday dominated the news over the weekend but for investors the more important news came before that historic (or...
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Feb 25, 2025
Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and...
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Feb 19, 2025
Since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 12% while the S&P 500 is only up a little over 4%, an outcome that is feeding a lot of narratives about it's cause. There have been...
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Feb 11, 2025
The stock market was having a good week until just around 10 am last Friday. Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good - with exceptions as always - and the...
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Feb 4, 2025
By the time you read this, markets around the world will be reacting to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China. I don't...
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Jan 28, 2025
President Trump's first week on the job was a good one for markets. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%, with tech stocks taking the lead as the President welcomed a group of leading technology...
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Jan 22, 2025
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old...
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Jan 14, 2025
The December employment report was released last Friday and it was quite a bit better than expected. Expectations were for payrolls to rise by 160,000 on the month but instead...
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Jan 7, 2025
At the beginning of every year, investment firms around the world publish their year-ahead outlook for markets and the economy. These prognostications can be interesting but not for...
Sep 3, 2025When I first got in this crazy business nearly 35 years ago, an older advisor took me under his wing and shared with me all that he had learned over his 40+ year career. One of the...
Aug 26, 2025All my economists say 'on one hand' then 'but on the other'. Can't someone bring me a one-handed economist? Maybe Harry Truman but on the other hand maybe Charles Frederick Carter or...
Aug 19, 2025“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September". "If you look at any model" it suggests that “we should probably be...
Aug 17, 2025How speculation became a global pastime
Aug 12, 2025Last week President Trump nominated the head of his Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill a vacant seat on the board of the Federal Reserve. Miran will fill the seat...
Aug 5, 2025When the June employment figures were released last month, I said there was likely a seasonal adjustment problem with the numbers and that a large part of the government jobs...
Jul 29, 2025So if you think your life is complete confusionBecause you never win the gameJust remember that it's a grand illusionAnd deep inside we're all the sameWe're all the same So if you...
Jul 22, 2025Jerome Powell's tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has ended. Not literally, of course, because apparently Scott Bessent has, for now, talked President Trump out of firing...
Jul 15, 2025Last week President Trump announced, via a letter posted on his social media site, that products from Brazil would face a 50% tariff, starting August 1st, due to their treatment of...
Jul 8, 2025The first half of this year saw a lot of old trends turned upside down. Foreign stocks outperformed US stocks, gold had its best first half performance since 2007 and the dollar its...
Jul 5, 2025Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That was the headline in the New York Times as the Senate debated...
Jul 1, 2025If, at the beginning of the year, anyone had predicted what actually happened in the first half of 2025, they would have been ridiculed and dismissed as delusional. If you were told...
Jun 24, 2025Note: I wrote most of this commentary prior to the US strike on Iran and I decided to go ahead with it anyway. I don't know any more than you do about what is going on in the Middle...
Jun 20, 2025Why so many rural hospitals keep closing
Jun 17, 2025Oil jumped 7.5% last Friday in the wake of the Israeli attack on Iran but the reaction in most other markets was surprisingly muted. The dollar, which normally catches a bid in these...
Jun 15, 2025A debt shock is coming for both China and the US.
Jun 10, 2025In about five weeks, the pause on President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs will expire. So far, the US has come to an agreement, of sorts, with exactly one country - the UK. That...
Jun 3, 2025The tariff rollercoaster continues. This week most of President Trump's tariffs were ruled to be outside the scope of the law he used to impose them. I was not surprised in the least...
May 28, 2025In commodity markets there's an old saying that low prices cure low prices and high prices cure high prices. High prices lead to over-investment in new capacity which leads to gluts...
May 13, 2025“Our freedom of choice in a competitive society rests on the fact that, if one person refuses to satisfy our wishes, we can turn to another. But if we face a monopolist we are at...
May 6, 2025From The Burden of Bretton Woods, The Richard Nixon Foundation: ...by the 1960s, the expansion of global production and trade increased the amount of dollars circulated worldwide —...
Apr 29, 2025Stocks have rebounded over the last three weeks from the initial shock of the "liberation day" tariffs announced on April 8th. The S&P 500 is now down just 2.5% since the close on...
Apr 22, 2025The US economy has been the envy of the world for a long time, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. Our economy has grown faster than just about any...
Apr 15, 2025The stock market rallied last week, the S&P 500 up nearly 6%, spurred on by the suspension of some of the tariffs imposed on April 2nd. The "reciprocal" part of the new tariffs was...
Apr 9, 2025You can't be serious! You cannot be serious! - John McEnroe, challenging a fault call at Wimbledon, 1981 That's what went through my head when President Trump unveiled his...
Apr 1, 2025Is it finally time for international stocks to shine? That question has been asked and answered negatively for 10 of the last 12 years if you compare the S&P 500 to the EAFE...
Mar 18, 2025There wasn't a lot of economic news last week but it was largely as expected and seemed pretty good. Job openings rose, there was no rise in jobless claims even after the large...
Mar 11, 2025Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating...
Mar 4, 2025The meeting between President Trump and Volodymyr Zelenski last Friday dominated the news over the weekend but for investors the more important news came before that historic (or...
Feb 25, 2025Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and...
Feb 19, 2025Since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 12% while the S&P 500 is only up a little over 4%, an outcome that is feeding a lot of narratives about it's cause. There have been...
Feb 11, 2025The stock market was having a good week until just around 10 am last Friday. Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good - with exceptions as always - and the...
Feb 4, 2025By the time you read this, markets around the world will be reacting to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China. I don't...
Jan 28, 2025President Trump's first week on the job was a good one for markets. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%, with tech stocks taking the lead as the President welcomed a group of leading technology...
Jan 22, 2025For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old...
Jan 14, 2025The December employment report was released last Friday and it was quite a bit better than expected. Expectations were for payrolls to rise by 160,000 on the month but instead...