RealClearMarkets Articles

During his first term, Donald Trump was an apprentice, a novice politician who had a lot to learn about the inner workings of the federal government. Trump’s term can best be described as unremarkable, with a naïve and undisciplined President Trump wasting this opportunity to lead the country and achieve his stated goals. He paid for his failings, and in 2020, “We the People” said “you’re fired.” That is usually the end of a political career, but Donald Trump is not a typical politician. He soldiered on, and despite a myriad of attempts to derail his...

Americans’ Financial Stress Hits a 42-Month Low, Eased by Confidence in Trump’s Economic Policies The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading gauge of consumer sentiment, rose by 1.5% in December to 54.0, reaching its highest level in 40 months since August 2021 (53.6). The index had been in negative territory for 38 consecutive months, starting in September 2021, and broke out decisively in November after President Donald Trump's historic return as the 47th President. November’s reading of 54.0 is 8.3% higher than its historical average of...

“Drill, baby, drill!” is the mantra of the triumphant Trump team’s aim to make the United States dominant in world energy production. But where to drill? There’s the rub. Drilling oil and gas exploration wells – many of which result in dry holes – is one of the most costly activities in producing hydrocarbons. Oil companies spent tens of billions of dollars drilling 40 dry wells in deep water until they found oil off the coast of Guyana. Imagine if there were technology in place that would drastically reduce that dry well cost and other obstacles to...

A recent Forbes investigation into Israeli venture capital firm Cyberstarts raised ethical questions about a profit-sharing program at the firm, and the threat the program poses to corporate data security.  The controversy at Cyberstarts, which counts the cloud security unicorn Wiz as the crown jewel in its portfolio, centers around its outside adviser network, dubbed Sunrise, that includes chief information security officers (CISOs) from some of the world’s largest companies, such as Colgate-Palmolive, Feddie Mac, and Kraft Heinz. In theory, these executives are meant to...

When my financial advisor told me to put my excess cash into life insurance, my first reaction was admittedly, to laugh. But once I’d looked at what he showed me and done the research, I had just one question: “Why aren’t more people doing this?” When I understood what a remarkable asset whole life insurance is, I was dumbfounded that more people aren’t taking advantage of it. The first and biggest obstacle preventing more widespread use of life insurance policies is simply put, a lack of education. People don’t understand what they’re dealing with;...

The effective hedging of an investment portfolio determines the success of any financial firm. But effective hedging in today’s ever more interconnected world requires increasingly more sophisticated multi-factor analysis that itself greatly depends on the availability and quality of the accessible data - and on how to properly interpret what the data reveals.  Among the many key factors considered by a financial analyst, geopolitical events and their influence emerge as highly relevant parameters. The outcomes of presidential elections, for example, are among the most...

"If one-half of the commodities in the market rise in exchange value, the very terms imply a fall of the other half; and reciprocally, the fall implies a rise." – John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy There was a time - particularly among thinkers on the supply-side and supply-side adjacent right - when it was accepted wisdom that production buys production. From the previous truth, it was a known quantity that precisely because governments produce nothing, they by extension cannot introduce any new demand. All governments can do is place the power to demand in other sets of...

President-elect Trump seized on voter frustrations with the economy on his path back to the White House. The incoming administration has made clear they believe the election results afford them a mandate to govern, and with that the expectation of enhanced growth will be paramount. One of the key features of the economic puzzle the new administration will try to put together is banking, and specifically what opportunities are ahead of them to decide what to cut, what or how to regulate, and what to deregulate. In this case, the Basel III Endgame regulations should be top of their...

A new report from the Tax Foundation shows that China has a better pro-growth tax system than the U.S., and that any increase in the U.S. corporate tax rate would give China an even greater competitive advantage over the U.S.  The report shows how China’s tax system is much more business-friendly than the U.S. tax code, providing greater incentives for investment and growth and lower tax rates on industry sectors that help them compete around the world.As the report notes, China has lower corporate tax rates than the U.S. corporate tax rate, and provides more generous deductions...

This week the Biden administration’s Department of Justice made clear their intentions for Google: destroy the most efficient search company in the world. The premise for this decision was a federal court ruling last August in the Justice Department’s lawsuit against Google that Google was a monopolist in the market for general search services on the internet.  Being a monopolist is, in itself, not an antitrust violation. The court, however, ruled that Google had maintained and expanded its market share by reason of it being the default search engine on its own Google’s...

Particularly after presidential elections that invariably get Democrats and Republicans way too riled up, it’s useful to bring Ed Crane into the discussion. Crane is the co-founder of the libertarian Cato Institute, and he’s long argued that a federal government operating within constitutional limits would make it possible for people to go to bed early on election night. Crane’s thinking came to mind while reading a recent opinion piece by Washington Post columnist Kate Cohen. Writing about what some on the left no doubt refer to as 11/5, Cohen recalled that “The day...

In the last two decades big tech companies such as Meta, Apple and Alphabet (Google) have been racing to construct data centers across the country to keep up with the burgeoning demand for such services. More recently, the advent of AI has accelerated demand for data storage, and their pace of construction has intensified. Data centers are energy-intensive endeavors, and need reliable energy at all hours of the day and night.  In some markets--most notably Northern Virginia, where the nation’s security agencies critically depend on AI--data centers consume a significant proportion...

Since the early days of his campaign, President Donald Trump has pledged to impose wide-ranging tariffs on many imported goods, including a 10 percent or higher tax on imports from other countries. This decision has made waves, drawn criticism, and largely dominated the trade policy debate in recent months – understandable, given the far-reaching implications of such a drastic change in policy. Nevertheless, President Trump’s tariffs are far from the only trade policy issue deserving of attention by the new administration. As we look ahead to January, any trade reform effort...

“We better hang up. This call is getting very expensive.” It’s something no one says anymore, but it was the norm right up to the dawn of the 21st century, and realistically beyond. Long distance calling used to be very expensive. So were computers very pricey. The typical desktop on offer in the 1990s cost thousands and thousands of dollars. As Bret Swanson has pointed out, accessories like mouses were extra back then. Internet access? For most, it wasn’t even a thing. Does anyone remember internet cafes that included the rental of laptops that came with internet...

The man who just got elected president of the United States has contradictory instincts: he wants to get the government off people’s backs, and he wants the government to play a gargantuan role in everything. He wants to lower taxes and raise spending; he wants fewer wars and an imperial military; he wants to remove obstacles to prosperity; and he wants to use tax money and the Federal Reserve to boost people’s incomes, in effect redistributing money, fueling inflation, and piling up the debt. Resolving these major contradictions or not will determine the success or failure of the...

If the question at the top of this opinion piece reads as flippant, that’s because it is. How else to respond to Columbia economics professor Glenn Hubbard than with flippancy born of mystification? In an opinion piece of his own titled “The Trump Economic Awakening,” Hubbard chose to speak for all Americans in platitudes: “They want an economic awakening, a new way forward that uses traditional economic policies to achieve Mr. Trump’s goal of more jobs for Americans whose fortunes have been harmed by technological change and globalization.” Where to...

With President Trump’s return to office, the appointment of a new Chair for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) presents a critical opportunity to reset the agency’s direction. While there’s strong momentum to dismantle current Chair Gary Gensler’s controversial policies, this decision must prioritize consistent, independent leadership over merely reactionary measures. The urge to fight back was instrumental in President Trump’s reelection, but the President’s legacy—and the SEC’s future—depend on thoughtful, market-oriented...

In a move that symbolizes the tenure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the Biden Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently initiated a high-profile enforcement lawsuit against DRW, a prominent crypto trading firm. This spotlights Gensler's stubborn stance on applying traditional securities laws to the burgeoning field of digital assets, a sector that is still in its nascent stages of development and yet rapidly evolving. This “regulation by enforcement” approach is perceived by many in the crypto space as punitive and limiting, sparking the need for a more reasoned and...

My fellow Americans. Trade policy in a nutshell. It doesn’t get any simpler than this. Unfettered free trade is good. Tariffs are bad. Y’all can go home now. Class is dismissed. “But wait,” says the guy in the red hat. “China is stealing our jobs!” Rob: No, not really. The United States has never been wealthier. Standards of living have never been higher. Free trade reduces prices, increases competition and productivity, creates opportunity and fosters technological advancement. The amount of goods and services at the fingertips of the poorest Americans...