RealClearMarkets Articles

Overlooked amid the Greenland uproar in Davos came an extraordinary statement from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Not only did the leader of America’s northern neighbor cozy up to Communist China by suggesting a “new order,” but he had the audacity to invoke the moral authority of Václav Havel, the first president of the Czech Republic and fierce anti-Communist crusader. In portraying life in an oppressive regime, Havel used a parable of a grocer hanging a sign on his window reading “workers of the world, unite." In Havel’s telling,...

Money in no way alters reality. This truth seemingly eludes Harvard economist Jason Furman. Consider his assertion in the New York Times that the dollar at “multiyear lows” ultimately “could be good for the U.S. economy.” Really? How? Furman is making an argument equivalent to one suggesting a six-inch-foot would magically make us tall. Money is a measure. Nothing else. The measure is meant to report reality. Cutting the measure in half doesn’t alter the length, weight, speed or cost of anything, it just means that perception of length, weight, speed, and cost...

America’s credit card industry is the most competitive in the world and delivers enormous value for consumers and merchants ranging from mom and pops to Goliaths like Walmart and Amazon. There are four national general purpose credit networks Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover. Roughly 3,700 financial institutions issue credit cards. Consumers enjoy a surfeit of choice. More than 300 banks and nonbanks provide payment acceptance to merchants. In spite of that, the credit card industry is in Washington’s cross hairs and value consumers and merchant take for...

Washington is currently gripped by a fervor to lower the cost of credit. From the President’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% to the recent legislation introduced in the Senate to cap late fees, the legislative intent is clear: protect consumers from high costs. On the surface, these measures sound like the ultimate act of consumer protection. For millions of Americans staring down double-digit APRs and penalty fees, they feel like a long-overdue lifeline. But in the world of consumer finance, the distance between a good intention and a disastrous outcome is often...

This past week, the CEOs of some of the largest U.S. banks attended Davos, and used the opportunity to attack Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, for having the temerity to attempt to compete with them by offering stablecoin holders a much higher rate of interest than the pittance they pay on deposits. At a time when affordability and the struggling finances of low- and middle-income Americans is at center stage politically, the debate over whether to rein in Coinbase’s ability to pay American consumers a high return on their savings is a golden opportunity for the Trump Administration to...

The GENIUS act does not adequately address the discrepancy between highly regulated regular lenders such as banks and crypto vendors aiming to mimic credit markets without adequate safety regulations. I recently argued for closing the stablecoin loophole in the GENIUS Act to protect Main Street communities that may switch from safer community banks with strict safety regulations to crypto stable coins where it is not. Credit competition should occur with an equal level playing field, not where incumbents are regulated while new competition is not.  As expected, crypto...

Government spending is excessively harmful precisely because it’s the central planning of precious goods, services and labor by the federal government. Conservatives and libertarians at one time nodded along to the latter, while progressives and liberals rolled their eyes. Not so much today. As this write-up’s title indicates, they’ve become one. See Patricia Cohen at the New York Times. In a recent front-page article at the newspaper, Cohen lamented soaring national debt in rich nations since “it means countries must make interest payments with money that otherwise...

Investor confidence gained by 9.7% in February, while overall optimism improved 3.4%. Consumer sentiment brightened in February as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer confidence, rose from 47.2 in January to 48.8, a 1.6-point or 3.4 percent gain. The index stayed below the neutral 50 level for the sixth straight month, keeping the nation in what we classify as a pessimistic zone. February’s reading of 48.8 is 0.66% below the 301-month historical average of 49.1, indicating that optimism remains slightly below the long-term...

One of the most significant progressive-era “innovations” to American government was the rise of “independent” federal agencies—independent because they are structured outside the control of the President and Congress. These agencies enforce regulations created by bureaucrats, stemming from legislation passed by Congress. These independent agencies exercise legislative and enforcement powers, as well as judicial powers through Administrative Law Judges (ALJs). ALJs decide cases, which can then be appealed to an Article Three Federal Court. One of the...

The gap between economic data and its public interpretation is huge and getting bigger. As we approach another election cycle, it’s worth asking: what’s real, what’s political theater, and what does it all mean if Democrats regain control of the House? At first glance, the national mood doesn’t make sense. Gas prices have eased, unemployment remains low, year-over-year wages are finally ticking upward in real terms, and yet the pervasive feeling—is one of decline. Stores are closing, home sales are plummeting even in supposedly recession-proof...

With each passing year, healthcare grows more expensive and less accessible. New technologies could slow—or even reverse—that trend. Artificial Intelligence can expand access, lower costs, and improve quality, but only if lawmakers don’t block its path. Precautionary regulations are piling up, stifling innovation and leaving AI tools subject to a patchwork of inconsistent restrictions. What’s needed is a clear, outcomes-focused framework that lets healthcare providers deploy AI tools already proven to match or exceed human capabilities. Patients and clinicians should...

The raging policy debate in Washington over the export of advanced AI chips to China found a recent proof point laying bare the wisdom of imposing tech bans, courtesy of a much more primitive chip. In October 2022, the Biden Administration, as part of a broader restriction on the export of advanced U.S. technology, imposed export restrictions on what is called the 14-nanometer chip, which is commonly used in cell phones. Reflecting current thinking at the time, the White House believed banning the humble chip, which was developed by Intel Corp. in 2014, would set back the fortunes of SMIC,...

Are you outraged yet? The Wall Street Journal is reporting that four days before President Trump's inauguration, the Abu Dhabi royal family bought a $500 million stake in the Trump family's crypto firm, World Liberty Financial. The $500 million was to be paid in two installments, $250 million immediately and another  $500 million in July of last year. Of the $250 million paid, the WSJ reports that:  The buyers would pay half up front, steering $187 million to Trump family entities. The deal with World Liberty Financial, which hasn’t previously been reported, was signed...

C3 Bullion describes its mission as operating in the space between investors and gold mines by providing capital and expertise to gold producers in return for physical gold from the mines the firm works with. C3 Bullion says this is a happy medium between buying gold bars or investing in gold ETFs – or stepping into the mining sector itself. This approach, backed by a $50 million capitalization via its C3 Fund I, enables C3 Bullion to identify existing gold mining operations with sizable deposits but a need for capital investment to bring additional gold to the marketplace. The...

Football is a great game, but it would quickly lose its luster if every time the referees stepped onto the field they had a secret meeting to discuss implementing new rules. Likewise, capitalism and entrepreneurship have driven our country forward since our founding, but if the government continues to step in and make up and arbitrarily apply new rules then these economic growth engines will begin to lose their luster. As Netflix continues to work through its bid to acquire Warner Brothers, there is a question about whether the government referees are coming up with new rules and whether...

There was nothing “financial” about the so-called “2008 financial crisis.” Markets quite simply ARE. They’re neither left nor right, nor are they biased toward one Party or another. They just tell the truth which, by its very description, is never the stuff of “crisis.” What’s been said rates prominent mention right now with President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. In attempting to predict Warsh’s performance in the Fed’s top job, economists and pundits will judge him based on what he’s said and...

Senator Elizabeth Warren recently gave a speech presenting her version of an economic agenda which she said would help working people. She railed against giant corporations, corporate tycoons, and a rigged corporate system, and called for higher taxes on big corporations. Unfortunately, her anti-corporate agenda is exactly the wrong way to help working people. It is indisputable that the best way to help working people is to increase economic growth, leading to more jobs, increased wages, and a higher standard of living. And economic growth is powered by American corporations and American...

At the ongoing World Economic Forum meetings, both U.S. foreign and domestic policies have taken center stage. This includes issues ranging from housing affordability to reshaping how the U.S. defense contractors run their businesses. In a recent Executive Order, the President, who is obviously not happy with the performance of America’s defense industrial base, forbid them to “pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”Secretary Scott Bessent has since doubled down on these restrictions by...

The Federal Reserve seems to be quietly shifting its inflation goalposts above its 2% target that has anchored policy since 2012, even as it continues to emphasize its dual mandate of fostering maximum employment while containing inflation. With a new Fed chief to be named and set to take over in May, more openness to additional easing, the recent rate cuts aimed at supporting a softening labor market signal a growing willingness to tolerate a slightly higher inflation range in both the near and longer-term. If the Federal Reserve is indeed moving toward a more flexible inflation goalpost,...